前瞻性非财务信息披露质量研究

项目名称： 前瞻性非财务信息披露质量研究

项目编号： No.71502144

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 谭有超

作者单位： 西南财经大学

项目金额： 19.5万元

中文摘要： 受限于会计确认、计量等因素，财务信息只是对历史经营情况的图像反映，增加有关公司未来发展前景的非财务信息以满足投资者和利益相关者的需求已经得到了西方学术界与实务界的广泛认同。我国政府和相关机构也不断要求和鼓励上市公司披露更多的前瞻性非财务信息，但是与国外理论研究和实践基本同步相比，国内鲜有文献对前瞻性非财务信息披露问题进行系统的分析与实证检验，学术研究远远滞后于实践。本课题拟从披露动机（选择大股东减持与业绩大幅下滑两个特殊事件）与经济后果（财务分析师预测偏差、股价预测未来盈余能力、股价崩盘风险）两个角度，对前瞻性非财务信息披露质量进行考察，并进一步探究披露质量是否具有横向的“状态依存性”和纵向的时序性变化。本课题的研究有助于评价政策实施效果、提高信息披露监管效率，并且也可以为制定和完善披露准则和指引提供理论借鉴。同时本课题的研究亦有助于管理者制定信息披露策略和提高投资者辨别信息质量的能力

中文关键词： 前瞻性非财务信息；披露质量；披露动机；经济后果；异质性

英文摘要： Financial information, being confined to accounting recognition and measurement issues, reflects only the historical results of operations. As such, it is imperative to increase the disclosure of forward-looking non-financial information so as to meet the growing need of investors as well as stakeholders. This has been widely accepted by western academics and practitioners. Despite the ongoing effort of Chinese government to require or encourage listed firms to disclose more forward-looking non-financial information, there is very scant domestic literature systematically and empirically examining this question, in contrast to the synchronous development of theories and practices in western countries. The purpose of this project is to investigate the forward-looking non-financial information in the context of China by focusing on: (1) the managerial motivation of disclosure, for which we choose to study two events including the largest shareholders’ stock selling and substantial reduction of performance; and (2) the economic consequences of disclosure such as forecast bias of financial analysts, the share price anticipation of future earnings, and stock price crash risk. In addition, the project aims to explore whether the disclosure quality exhibits cross-sectional dependence and time-series variation. The findings stem from the project are expected to ameliorate policy assessment and effectiveness of monitoring on information disclosure. Also, they provide regulators with a theoretical basis for formulating and improving the disclosure rules and guidance. Meanwhile, the findings may enable managers to better design their disclosure strategies and improve the ability of shareholders to detect information quality.

英文关键词： Forward-Looking Non-Financial Information ;Disclosure Quality;Motivation of Disclosure;Economic Consequences;Heterogeneity