西部地区节能潜力与实现机制研究

项目名称： 西部地区节能潜力与实现机制研究

项目编号： No.71463057

项目类型： 地区科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 冉启英

作者单位： 新疆大学

项目金额： 34万元

中文摘要： 本课题以低碳经济发展为目标，以西部地区为研究区域，以能源效率为切入点，以节能潜力为研究对象展开研究。首先，基于西部地区面板数据和时间序列,采用数据包络分析（DEA）方法分析测度省际全要素能源效率水平与地区差异；其次，通过DEA的径向调整和松弛调整定量化西部地区的节能潜力；再次，运用协理理论和误差修正模型揭示技术进步、产业结构、城市化水平、能源价格及能源消费结构等因素对节能潜力的影响机理和程度,甄别短期和长期影响因素；并基于此运用BP神经网络模型分别预测西部地区短期和长期节能潜力，动态模拟不同情景对西部地区节能潜力的影响机制和效应，并提出不同情形下西部地区节能潜力的实现路径和政策选择。

中文关键词： 节能潜力；能源效率；实现机制；西部地区

英文摘要： This issue researchs on energy saving potential aimed at the low-carbon development, treats the western regions as the study area ,and energy efficiency as the entry point.First of all,using the method of Data Envelopment Analysis based on panel data and time sequences to evaluate the inter-provincial total factor energy efficiency and its regional differences;Secondly,using the DEA's radial adjustment and relaxation adjustment to quantitative energy saving potential in the western areas. Next, using the Associate Theory and Error Correction Model to describes the influence mechanism and degree on energy-saving potential by some factors such as technological progress, industrial structure, urbanization level, energy price and energy consumption structure,and to dentify the short-term and long-term influencing factors;Then, based on the rusult above, using BP neural network model to respectively predict the short-term and long-term energy saving potential,and dynamicly simulate different factor's function mechanism and degree on energy saving potential in different circumstances.Finally,this subject puts forward the corresponding paths and policies for realizing energy saving potential in the western regions.

英文关键词： energy saving potential;energy efficiency;realization mechanism;western regions