基于案例推理的大型医院非常规突发事件应急救援系统研究

项目名称： 基于案例推理的大型医院非常规突发事件应急救援系统研究

项目编号： No.71473265

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 侯世科

作者单位： 天津大学

项目金额： 60万元

中文摘要： 大型医院由于其主体特殊性，比一般机构面临更大非常规突发事件UE 的威胁，加强如何提升其应急能力研究对防范UE 意义重大。认识和理解大型医院UE发生的结构特征和情景演化规律是大型医院UE应急决策的关键问题，但关于大型医院UE案例推演的机制和方法仍不清楚。我们发现对大型医院UE的各种外在表现形式、特征和发展趋势及可能的影响因素进行分析整理，利用各领域专家知识，构造出事件的情境描述，可有效简化应急决策工作流程和减少工作量。本项目设想首先研究大型医院UE的救援情景分析与推演方法，在此基础上探讨分析大型医院UE的系统特征与应急救援决策机理，再研究基于情景检索的大型医院UE案例推理应急救援决策方法，建立情景-应对型大型医院UE应急救援决策模式。预期结果不但为大型医院UE应急救援决策情景推演提供理论依据和分析平台，而且为应急资源优化配置提供科学依据，为应急管理相关理论问题研究提供新的方法和手段。

中文关键词： 大型医院；案例推理；非常规突发事件；应急救援

英文摘要： Large hospitals face a bigger threat of unconventional emergencies(UE) than the general orgnization because of its particularity.It's very important to strengthen the response capacity research of Large hospitals to prevent UE.It's the key question to aware and understand structural features and the regular pattern of scenario evolution of unconventional emergency.But the unconventional emergency of case-based reasoning mechanisms and methods remains unclear. We found that it can effectively simplified workflow and reduced the workload of the emergency decision-making by consolidation of various external manifestations, characteristics and trends and the likely impact analysis, the use of experts in various fields of knowledge, constructed event scenario descriptions. The project envisages study of unconventional emergency rescue scenario analysis and deduction method first, then, on this basis, investigate characteristics of the events unconventional emergency system and mechanism of emergency rescue decision-making,and, explore the emergency rescue decision-making method based on unconventional emergency case scenario retrieval reasoning, establish the scenario-response unconventional emergency rescue decision-making mode at last. The result is expected to not only provide a theoretical basis and analys is plat form for non-routine emergencies emergency rescue decision-making scenarios deduction, but also provide the scientific basis for resource allocation of emergency and provide new methods and means for emergency management theoretical issues.

英文关键词： large hospital;Cased-Based Reasoning;unconventional emergency;emergency rescue