我国地震海啸危险性概率分析方法

项目名称： 我国地震海啸危险性概率分析方法

项目编号： No.51278473

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 建筑科学

项目作者： 温瑞智

作者单位： 中国地震局工程力学研究所

项目金额： 82万元

中文摘要： 近年我国海洋工程建设大量增加，地震海啸安全性评价应给于重视。本项目将收集、分析和整理地震海啸目录，开展我国沿海地震构造环境综合分析和海域海床地形特征分析，划分远海和近海潜在海啸源，建立地震发生概率与潜源识别模型，通过确定的潜在震源物理参数，开展地震海啸危险性分析；将设定地震破裂过程划分为若干子破裂断层，利用格林函数法，分别计算出子断层破裂产生的某一点的海啸波，模拟地震海啸初始发生位移场；基于海啸波的流体动力学方程，考虑海洋底部摩擦，建立浅水方程，开展不同参数下海啸传播与爬高模拟；以我国成熟的地震海啸危险性分析方法为基础，建立概率性海啸危险性计算方法，并对潜在海啸源区的不确定性进行分析，最后在地理信息系统平台下将数值模拟成果与基础数据集成。本研究思路和方法以及相应成果可以直接服务于我国沿海地震海啸危险性分析。

中文关键词： 概率海啸危险性分析；数值模拟；蒙特卡洛；历史地震海啸；超越概率

英文摘要： Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has become standard practice in the evaluation and mitigation of seismic hazard. Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) achieves the same goal for hazards posed by tsunami. Although this field is not very developed yet, this method offers great advantages for evaluating the total risk including the seismic and tsunami to coastal communities, facilities, and infrastructure. Tsunami hazard analysis has been undergone many years in Japan，America and other countries and some methods had been applied in the tsunami mitigation. In China, the tsunami research is just recognized by the public and the definition and method of probabilistic earthquake tsunami hazard analysis have not been proposed yet. We will develop the China PTHA method and the probabilistic tsunami inundation maps for China based on this delineated tsunami sources. The first step in this project is to examine the past records since it provides clues to what might happen in the future.Plate tectonics, seabed geological conditions, paleoseismological evidences, historical earthquake datum,historical tsunami datum, sea depth, and so on, are the main basis of delineating potential tsunami source regions. The recurrence models used for the PTHA tend to favor the recurrence of earthquakes in individual fa

英文关键词： probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis；numerical simulation；Monte Carlor；historical tsunami records；exceedance probability