中国典型地域水、能源和粮食系统的关联动力学模型构建与实证研究

项目名称： 中国典型地域水、能源和粮食系统的关联动力学模型构建与实证研究

项目编号： No.71473285

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 李桂君

作者单位： 中央财经大学

项目金额： 63万元

中文摘要： 水、能源和粮食是人类生存和发展的必需资源，而三种资源日益凸显的短缺问题给现代社会的可持续发展带来了严峻挑战。由于三种资源的生产和消耗存在着密切而又复杂的关联关系，以单一系统作为研究对象分别制定资源治理政策，不但不能从整体实现三种资源的综合集约利用，而且还可能导致不可预料的严重后果。为此，构建一个既能揭示系统关联规律，又能监测资源动态变化特征的动力学模型，以实现三种资源的综合集成治理非常重要。本项目将通过构建刻画三种资源关联关系的系统动力学模型，探索不同市场和自然（组合）事件情境下，政策组合对于三种资源生产和消耗的影响机理，并在此基础上引入博弈论和进化算法，从全局视角提出W-E-F Nexus应对不同市场、自然环境（组合）事件冲击下的应对政策的制定方法；并应用前述理论方法对京津冀和呼包鄂等典型区域进行实证研究，完善和修正理论模型，同时提出上述区域实现三种资源综合集约治理的政策和方法。

中文关键词： 水-能源-粮食；关联复杂系统；环境政策；系统动力学

英文摘要： Water, energy and food are vital to human being's existence and development, whose shortages pose a serious threat on the sustainable development of modern society. There is a system relationship among the three types of resources, the existence of three resources' close and complex relationship decides that any research about single resource can't service the overall decision making in governance policy, but also may make serious consequences. So, Building a system dynamic model to reveal the three resources relationship, further to monitor the dynamic characteristics of resources for comprehensive integrated management of water, energy and food is very important. This project tries to establish a system dynamics model including Water-Energy-Food Nexus (W-E-F Nexus) to analyze the policy mix effect mechanism to production and consumption of water, energy and food under different market events and natural scenes. According to game theory and evolutionary algorithm, improve a way to develop policy to deal with the adverse (combined) event from a global perspective, and considering the impact from differences of policy mix and regional characteristics. Through empirical study in Jing-Jin-Ji region and Hu-Bao-E region, modify and improve the theoretical model, and finally, provide policies and procedures acting on the above regions for comprehensive integrated management of water, energy and food.

英文关键词： Water-Energy-Food Nexus;Interdependent Complex System;Environmental Policy;System Dynamics