基于二项分布的单沟泥石流危险性定量分析方法

项目名称： 基于二项分布的单沟泥石流危险性定量分析方法

项目编号： No.41201554

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 地理学

项目作者： 苏志满

作者单位： 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所

项目金额： 25万元

中文摘要： 本申请项目拟探讨基于概率分析的单沟泥石流危险性定量分析方法。项目选用期望规模表征泥石流危险性，综合运用资料收集、沟道调查、数学建模、GIS分析等技术手段研究单沟泥石流期望规模的计算和分析方法。首先，通过修正基于二项分布的泥石流发生概率计算方法，提出一定时期内不同重现周期泥石流发生概率计算方法，结合以经验性模型为主的不同重现周期泥石流规模计算方法，提出规模-概率关系式拟合方法和单沟泥石流期望规模计算方法。然后，通过与云南小江流域蒋家沟泥石流实测资料的对比分析优化计算方法，通过小江沿岸泥石流沟的实例分析，界定计算方法的适用条件，探讨定量的单沟泥石流危险性分级方法。 本申请项目将提供一种基于指标分析法和机理分析法的单沟泥石流危险性定量分析方法，能够得到一定时期内泥石流期望规模值，而且基础数据易得、技术要求低，在泥石流灾害风险定量分析、保险精算等领域均有应用前景。

中文关键词： 泥石流；期望规模；危险量；二项分布；

英文摘要： This applied project aims at proposing quantitative analysis methods of individual debris flow hazard based on probability analysis. Debris flow hazard will be expressed by the term of expected magnitude, and multiple research techniques will be adopted, including data collecting, gully investigating, mathematical modeling, and GIS based analyzing,to discuss the calculating and analysis approaches of exppected magnitude of individual debris flow. A calculating procedure of occurrence probability of debris flow based on binomial distribution will be rectified into another procedure which can calculate occurrence probabilities of debris flows with different return periods. The rectified procedure, integrating with a calculating procedure of magnitudes in different return periods, which is mainly based on experiential models, will be used to form a curve fitting procedure of magnitude-probability expression and a calculating procedure of expected magnitude of individual debris flow. The procedures will be optimized through a comparative analysis with real evidences in Jiangjia gully in Xiaojiang river basin, Yunnan province. Furtherly, using conditions of the procedures will be defined by summing up the results of case studied in Xiaojiang river basin. Besides, the case studied results will be used to investigate a

英文关键词： debris flow；expected magnitude；hazard amount；Binomial distribution；