性能数据驱动的滚动轴承可靠性演变过程预测方法

项目名称： 性能数据驱动的滚动轴承可靠性演变过程预测方法

项目编号： No.51475144

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 机械、仪表工业

项目作者： 夏新涛

作者单位： 河南科技大学

项目金额： 80万元

中文摘要： 随着航空航天、高速客车与新能源等领域的发展，滚动轴承可靠性研究备受关注，迫切需求及时预测其未来性能可靠性信息，尽早发现失效隐患，避免恶性事故发生。因趋势与失效概率分布事先未知，且内、外部因素复杂多变，使滚动轴承很多性能的退化具有不确定性并伴随可靠性的未知演变，现有可靠性理论难以解决这个问题。为此，基于混沌、力学、信息熵、模糊集合与贝叶斯统计等理论，研究性能数据驱动的滚动轴承可靠性演变过程预测方法。提出性能数据驱动失效过程概念，建立从无失效到失效的性能演变过程预测模型，以揭示性能失效演变机制；提出融合自愈演变模式，以表征性能可靠性演变轨迹；提出双驱统计量概念，以刻画可靠性演变假设检验否定域的新内涵；提出联合演变特征量概念，以探索性能可靠性演变概率的动力学本质。研究成果能突破传统可靠性理论的局限，促进对滚动轴承未知特性认识，为开拓性能可靠性演变研究新领域提供新理念，深化可靠性基础科学研究。

中文关键词： 滚动轴承；性能可靠性；性能数据驱动；可靠性演变；预测方法

英文摘要： With the devolopment of the fields of aeronautics and astronautics, bullet trains, and alternative energy, reliability research of rolling bearings has attracted much attention. It is most pressing required that information on rolling bearing performance reliability at the future time with a timely forecast will be useful for the early detection of the hidden danger of failure of rolling bearing performance, thus avoiding serious accident. Degradation of much performance of rolling bearings is uncertain along with unknown evolvement of reliability due to unknown trend and failure probability distribution in advance and complexity and polytrope of intrinsic and external factors, resulting in this issue unresolved for the existing reliability theory. For this end, this project studies the forecasting method for performance-data-driven reliability evolvement of rolling bearings based on the theory of chaos, mechanics, information entropy, fuzzy set,and Bayesian statistics. A concept of performance-data-driven failure processes is proposed and the forecasting model of performance evolvement from no failure to failure is established to reveal the mechanism of performance failure evolvement; a fusion self-healing evolution model is presented to make a representation of the reliability evolvement trajectory; a concept of double-driving statistics is defined to depict new connotations of hypothesis testing rejection region of reliability evolvement; a concept of characteristic quantity of joint evolution is developed to explore dynamics nature of reliability evolvement probability. The research findings can move beyond the limitations of classical reliability theories, make an advance in understanding the unknown features of rolling bearings, provide new idea for deploitation of the frontiers of performance reliability evolution theories, and deepen basic science research for reliability.

英文关键词： rolling bearing;performance reliability;performance-data-driven principle;reliability evolvement;forecasting method