三峡库区水上突发事件应急资源配置鲁棒优化研究

项目名称： 三峡库区水上突发事件应急资源配置鲁棒优化研究

项目编号： No.51279153

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 水利工程

项目作者： 杨家其

作者单位： 武汉理工大学

项目金额： 82万元

中文摘要： 三峡大坝建成后，库区河段内港口、锚地密布、船舶航路交叉，大事故和重大事故呈上升趋势。日趋严峻的三峡库区安全形势对库区水上应急救助提出了更高的要求。水上突发事件应急救助的核心是对应急资源的充分占有、合理配置和快速部署，而应急资源的动态需求会引起应急资源的浪费和闲置、或是紧缺和匮乏。本项目将探析三峡库区水上突发事件应急资源内涵及其动态需求特性，通过分析影响应急资源需求的关键因素，构建基于结构方程的水上突发事件应急资源动态需求模型。在分析动态需求与资源配置的相互关系，综合考虑可调配资源种类及数量、调配距离、调配时间、调配成本以及调配的可行性等各种因素的基础上，建立以救助时效为目标函数的偏差鲁棒优化选址模型和应急资源合理配置模型，并给出算法实现，最后利用Arena仿真建模技术对三峡库区水上应急救援过程中的资源配置方案进行合理有效判别。力图为三峡库区水上突发事件应急资源优化配置提供科学的决策支持。

中文关键词： 三峡库区；水上突发事件；应急资源；配置；鲁棒优化

英文摘要： After the completion of the Three Gorges Dam , anchorage clouds, ship routes cross，major incidents and serious accidents are increasingly rising, the security situation of the Three Gorges reservoir area becomes worser.Therefore,the management department has to improve the ability to deal with such emergency. The main task for water emergency rescue is the full possession ,rational allocation and rapid deployment of emergency response resources. Yet,the dynamic needs of the emergency response resources will cause a waste of emergency resources, or shortages and deprivation. This project will analyze water emergency response resources connotation and its dynamic demand characteristics .On the basis of exploring the factors affecting emergency resources requirements, using the structural equation method,the water emergency response resources demand model will be built. Considering the deployment of resource types and number, distance, time, costs, as well as the feasibility,this project will establish the site model and emergency response resources allocation optimization model to the limitation of rescue time ,which is the objective function.Applying Arena simulation modeling techniques can help determining the process of simulation and implementation of resource allocation during water emergency rescue rational

英文关键词： Three Gorges Reservoir Area；Water Emergency；Emergency Response Resource；Allocation；Robust Optimization