夏季中尺度强降水天气系统的可预报性研究

项目名称： 夏季中尺度强降水天气系统的可预报性研究

项目编号： No.41275101

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 贝耐芳

作者单位： 西安交通大学

项目金额： 80万元

中文摘要： 从1998年7月武汉-黄石特大暴雨等过程入手，探讨夏季中尺度强降水天气系统的可预报性的内在和客观原因。采用最新研制的WRF（Weather Research and Forecasting Model）模式及CR-WRF-CHEM (Cloud-Resolving WRF Model with Chemistry) 模式开展模拟试验。利用集合预报方式，研究模式初值的不确定性对夏季中尺度强降水天气系统可预报性的影响；类似的试验将在至少3至5次夏季强暴雨过程中展开，以便得到较为普遍性的研究结果；通过个例研究，了解控制误差增长的动力学和夏季中尺度强降水天气系统的可预报性的基本过程。利用CR-WRF-CHEM 模式模拟气溶胶时空分布变化对中尺度系统可预报性的影响，并进一步研究不同气溶胶条件下 (海洋气溶胶，大陆气溶胶，和高度污染的城市气溶胶)，中尺度强降水系统可预报性的变化。

中文关键词： 可预报性；集合预报；气溶胶；；

英文摘要： The proposed study will first explore both the intrinsic and practical aspects of the predictability of the summertime mesoscale weather system (MWS) with the severe rainfall events occurred at Wuhan-Huangshi in China in July, 1998. The Weather-Research and Forecast (WRF) model and Cloud-Resolving WRF model with Chemistry (CR-WRF-CHEM) will be used in the proposed study. The impact of the initial uncertainties on the predictability of the MWS will be investigated using ensemble forecasts and similar experiments will be performed on at least two other summertime heavy rainfall events. Through these case studies, we attempt to understand the fundamental processes that control the error growth dynamics and predictability of the summertime MWS, especially for those leading to severe flooding. The CR-WRF-CHEM model will be used to examine the impacts of uncertainties of aerosol temporal variations and spatial distributions on the predictability of the MWS, and further studies will focus on the variations of the predictability of the MWS under different aerosol conditions (marine, continental, and polluted aerosols). Although there are limitations on mesoscale forecasts due to the rapid error growth, there still remains substantial room for improving existing forecasts. This proposal seeks to improve the current meso

英文关键词： predictability；ensemble forecast；aerosol；；