大规模人群非线性同步动力学特性研究

项目名称： 大规模人群非线性同步动力学特性研究

项目编号： No.61272314

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 自动化技术、计算机技术

项目作者： 陈丹

作者单位： 武汉大学

项目金额： 64万元

中文摘要： 研究如何在复杂条件（如灾害和突发事件）下有效地控制、疏导超大规模人群，对国家安全和社会稳定意义重大。动力学特性分析是揭示大规模人群这种高度复杂的非线性动态系统发生和演化机制的基本手段。当前定量描述大规模人群动力学特征的方法还是空白，介观尺度上团体行为形成和演化的机理有待深入研究、人群内部多个尺度上的互动模式还需要深入探讨。本项目将基于非线性动力学、信号处理以及复杂系统建模和仿真的最新技术，提出估计人群内部在个体、团体和人群多个尺度上运动同步的新方法，深入理解个人与团体间耦合和动力学同步传播机制；发展模式识别的方法创新性地获取人群实时外部和情绪特征；在大规模人群仿真基础上支持和验证动力学分析；最终融合高性能计算技术以实现对复杂条件下大规模人群运动动力学特征的在线定量评估与行为预测。本项目的开展将为研究应急管理理论体系中的重要环节-复杂条件下大规模人群的管理-奠定新的理论基础并提供科学方法。

中文关键词： 人群动力学特性；非线性同步；建模与仿真；复杂系统；模式识别

英文摘要： How to effectively manage huge crowd under complicated conditions (e.g., disasters and emergent events) has long been a critical issue to our nation's safety and stability. Dynamics analysis nurtures a fundamental means to reveal the underlying mechanisms of the formation and evolvement of a huge crowd, a highly complex and dynamic system. There exist pressing needs for (1) a framework for quantitative measurement of crowd dynamics; (2) an in-depth study of group behavior's dynamics; and (3) interaction patterns amongst different parts inside a crowd at various scales. This project is based on the contemporary technologies rooted from multiple disciplines including nonlinear dynamics, signal processing and modeling & simulation of complex systems. The project aims (1) to establish the theory and methods for quantifying the global synchronization amongst the individuals and groups at various scales; (2) to investigate the mechanism of coupling amongst the individuals and groups as well as the propagation of synchronization; (3) to foster a suite of novel approaches to acquirement of external and internal characteristics of huge crowd; (4) to sustain and verify crowd dynamics analysis using large-scale crowd modeling & simulation technology; and (5) to realize online quantitative assessment and predication of the

英文关键词： Crowd Dynamics；Nonlinear Synchronization；Modelling & Simulation；Complex System；Pattern Recognition