高风险复杂随机生产过程供应链研究

项目名称： 高风险复杂随机生产过程供应链研究

项目编号： No.71332005

项目类型： 重点项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 申作军

作者单位： 清华大学

项目金额： 230万元

中文摘要： 高风险复杂随机生产过程供应链是一类具有生产过程复杂不确定、运作管理风险高、外部监管严格等特点的新型供应链。生物制药、新材料和新能源等 “十二五”国家战略性新兴产业的供应链都具有这些特点。研究高风险复杂随机生产供应链的运作方法，并在此基础之上开发有效的运作范式与技术工具，将有助于推动这些关系民生与国际竞争力的战略性产业的规范和快速发展。本项研究旨在针对高风险复杂随机生产过程供应链的特点，首先优化安排其生产系统，对生产过程中的中间产品及质检批次进行排队网络建模，制定生产计划的实时随机优化控制策略，并设计具有灵活性的生产过程，优化多级安全库存水平。其次，从全供应链管理的角度建立有针对性的市场需求模型，为相关产业制定产品、产能、交易结构以及保证供应链安全性的管理策略。最终研究成果将为相关产业提供综合的生产管理和供应链风险规避的理论方法。

中文关键词： 高风险供应链;复杂随机生产过程;排队网络;生产计划优化;风险规避

英文摘要： High-risk supply chain with uncertain manufacturing processes refers to a category of emerging supply chains which involve stochastic and complex manufacturing processes, face high operational risk and are highly regulated. Typical industries relying on this type of supply chain include bio-pharmaceuticals, advanced materials processing and renewable energy generation, all of which are selected by the State Council of China as the Strategic Emerging Industries during the 12th Five-Year Plan. Research on methodologies as well as development of decision-making tools for effectively operating this type of supply chain will help these industries thrive sustainably. The proposed research aims to develop systematic approaches to effectively managing the high-risk supply chain with uncertain manufacturing processes, with special attention to its unique complexities. To improve the operations of the manufacturing processes, we model the batches of intermediate/final products for quality tests as a queuing network, and then develop stochastic optimal control strategies for online production scheduling. We also investigate cost efficient schemes of process flexibility design and of multi-echelon safety stock placement. To enhance the overall performance of this type of supply chain, we develop dedicated product diffusion models and streamline the supply chain from perspectives such as product development, capacity development, trading structures and supply chain security. The outcome of this research will provide the relevant industries with insights and methodologies to operate the manufacturing processes and minimize the operational risk.

英文关键词： high-risk supply chain;uncertain manufacturing proces;queuing network;production planning;risk minimization