Probabilistic forecasting is receiving growing attention nowadays in a variety of applied fields, including hydrology. Several machine learning concepts and methods are notably relevant towards addressing the major challenges of formalizing and optimizing probabilistic forecasting implementations, as well as the equally important challenge of identifying the most useful ones among these implementations. Nonetheless, practically-oriented reviews focusing on such concepts and methods, and on how these can be effectively exploited in the above-outlined essential endeavour, are currently missing from the probabilistic hydrological forecasting literature. This absence holds despite the pronounced intensification in the research efforts for benefitting from machine learning in this same literature. It also holds despite the substantial relevant progress that has recently emerged, especially in the field of probabilistic hydrological post-processing, which traditionally provides the hydrologists with probabilistic hydrological forecasting implementations. Herein, we aim to fill this specific gap. In our review, we emphasize key ideas and information that can lead to effective popularizations, as such an emphasis can support successful future implementations and further scientific developments. In the same forward-looking direction, we identify open research questions and propose ideas to be explored in the future.
翻译:目前,各种应用领域,包括水文学领域,都日益关注概率预测问题。若干机算学习概念和方法对于应对正式确定和优化概率预测执行情况等重大挑战以及确定这些执行工作中最有用的挑战同样重要。然而,从概率水文预测文献中目前缺乏注重实际的审查工作,重点是这些概念和方法,以及如何在上述基本努力中有效利用这些概念和方法。尽管为从同一文献中的机器学习中受益而明显加强了研究工作,但这种欠缺依然存在。尽管最近出现了重大的相关进展,特别是在概率水文后处理领域,传统上为水文学家提供概率水文预测执行情况。我们在此过程中,力求填补这一具体差距。我们的审查强调可导致有效普及的关键思想和信息,因为这种强调能够支持今后成功实施和进一步的科学发展。在同一前瞻性方向上,我们确定了开放的研究问题,并提出了今后要探讨的想法。