This study presents the approach to analyzing the evolution of an arbitrary complex system whose behavior is characterized by a set of different time-dependent factors. The key requirement for these factors is only that they must contain an information about the system; it does not matter at all what the nature (physical, biological, social, economic, etc.) of a complex system is. Within the framework of the presented theoretical approach, the problem of searching for non-linear regression models that express the relationship between these factors for a complex system under study is solved. It will be shown that this problem can be solved using the methodology of \emph{genetic (evolutionary)} algorithms. The resulting regression models make it possible to predict the most probable evolution of the considered system, as well as to determine the significance of some factors and, thereby, to formulate some recommendations to drive by this system. It will be shown that the presented theoretical approach can be used to analyze the data (information) characterizing the educational process in the discipline "Physics" in the secondary school, and to develop the strategies for improving academic performance in this discipline.
翻译:这项研究提出了分析任意复杂系统演变的方法,其行为具有一系列不同时间依赖因素的特点。这些因素的关键要求是,它们必须包含关于系统的信息;一个复杂系统的性质(物理、生物、社会、经济等)并不重要。在提出的理论方法的框架内,寻找非线性回归模型来表达这些要素与所研究的复杂系统之间的关系的问题得到解决。将表明这个问题可以通过“进化(进化)算法”的方法加以解决。由此产生的回归模型使得有可能预测所考虑的系统最有可能的演变过程,以及确定某些因素的重要性,从而拟订一些建议来推动这一系统。将表明,可以使用所提出的理论方法分析中学“物理”学科教育过程的特征的数据(信息),并制订提高该学科学术绩效的战略。