Time series forecasting is essential across domains from finance to supply chain management. This paper introduces ForecastGAN, a novel decomposition based adversarial framework addressing limitations in existing approaches for multi-horizon predictions. Although transformer models excel in long-term forecasting, they often underperform in short-term scenarios and typically ignore categorical features. ForecastGAN operates through three integrated modules: a Decomposition Module that extracts seasonality and trend components; a Model Selection Module that identifies optimal neural network configurations based on forecasting horizon; and an Adversarial Training Module that enhances prediction robustness through Conditional Generative Adversarial Network training. Unlike conventional approaches, ForecastGAN effectively integrates both numerical and categorical features. We validate our framework on eleven benchmark multivariate time series datasets that span various forecasting horizons. The results show that ForecastGAN consistently outperforms state-of-the-art transformer models for short-term forecasting while remaining competitive for long-term horizons. This research establishes a more generalizable approach to time series forecasting that adapts to specific contexts while maintaining strong performance across diverse data characteristics without extensive hyperparameter tuning.
翻译:时间序列预测在从金融到供应链管理等多个领域均至关重要。本文提出ForecastGAN,一种新颖的基于分解的对抗性框架,旨在解决现有多时间跨度预测方法的局限性。尽管Transformer模型在长期预测中表现出色,但在短期场景中通常表现不佳,且往往忽略分类特征。ForecastGAN通过三个集成模块运行:分解模块用于提取季节性和趋势成分;模型选择模块根据预测时间跨度识别最优神经网络配置;以及对抗训练模块通过条件生成对抗网络训练增强预测鲁棒性。与传统方法不同,ForecastGAN有效整合了数值与分类特征。我们在涵盖不同预测时间跨度的十一个基准多元时间序列数据集上验证了该框架。结果表明,ForecastGAN在短期预测中持续优于最先进的Transformer模型,同时在长期预测中保持竞争力。本研究建立了一种更具泛化能力的时间序列预测方法,能够适应特定情境,并在无需大量超参数调整的情况下,在不同数据特征上保持强劲性能。