Adaptation-relevant predictions of climate change are often derived by combining climate model simulations in a multi-model ensemble. Model evaluation methods used in performance-based ensemble weighting schemes have limitations in the context of high-impact extreme events. We introduce a locally time-invariant method for evaluating climate model simulations with a focus on assessing the simulation of extremes. We explore the behaviour of the proposed method in predicting extreme heat days in Nairobi and provide comparative results for eight additional cities.
翻译:适应性有关的气候变化预测通常是通过组合多模型模拟得到的。在高影响极端事件的背景下,性能权重方案中使用的模型评估方法存在局限性。我们引入了一种本地时不变的方法来评估气候模型模拟,重点是评估极端事件的模拟。我们探讨了所提出方法在预测内罗毕的极端高温天数方面的行为,并提供了八个其他城市的比较结果。