In the Sahel region the population depends largely on rain-fed agriculture. In West Africa in particular, climate models turn to be unable to capture some basic features of present-day climate variability. This study proposes a contribution to the analysis of the evolution of agro-climatic risks in a context of climate variability. Some statistical tests are used on the main variables of the rainy season to determine the trends and the variabilities are described by the data series. Thus, the paper provides a statistical modeling of the different agro-climatic risks while the seasonal variability of agro-climatic parameters were analized as well as their inter annual variability. The study identifies the probability distributions of agroclimatic risks and the characterization of the rainy season was clarified.
翻译：在萨赫勒地区,人口主要依赖雨水灌溉的农业,尤其是在西非,气候模型无法捕捉当今气候变异的一些基本特征,本研究报告建议协助分析气候变异情况下农业气候风险的演变情况,对雨季的主要变数进行一些统计测试,以确定趋势和数据序列所描述的变异性,因此,本文件提供了不同农业气候风险的统计模型,同时对农业气候参数的季节性变异性进行了肛交及其年度间变异性,并澄清了农业气候风险的概率分布情况和雨季的特点。
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