Forecasting financial time series is considered to be a difficult task due to the chaotic feature of the series. Statistical approaches have shown solid results in some specific problems such as predicting market direction and single-price of stocks; however, with the recent advances in deep learning and big data techniques, new promising options have arises to tackle financial time series forecasting. Moreover, recent literature has shown that employing a combination of statistics and machine learning may improve accuracy in the forecasts in comparison to single solutions. Taking into consideration the mentioned aspects, in this work, we proposed the MegazordNet, a framework that explores statistical features within a financial series combined with a structured deep learning model for time series forecasting. We evaluated our approach predicting the closing price of stocks in the S&P 500 using different metrics, and we were able to beat single statistical and machine learning methods.
翻译:统计方法在预测市场方向和股票单一价格等一些具体问题上显示出了坚实的结果;然而,随着最近深层次学习和大数据技术的进步,出现了新的有希望的备选办法来处理财务时间序列预测问题;此外,最近的文献表明,结合统计和机器学习,与单一解决办法相比,预测的准确性可能会提高。考虑到上述各方面,我们在此工作中提出了MegazordNet,这是一个在财务系列中探索统计特征的框架,同时采用结构化的深层次学习模型进行时间序列预测。我们用不同的指标评估了预测S & P 500号股票关闭价格的方法,我们得以战胜单一的统计和机器学习方法。