Forensic entomology contributes important information to crime scene investigations. In this paper, we propose a method to estimate the hatching time of larvae (or maggots) based on their lengths, the temperature profile at the crime scene and experimental data on larval development. This requires the estimation of a time-dependent growth curve from experiments where larvae have been exposed to a relatively small number of constant temperature profiles. Since the temperature influences the developmental speed, a crucial step is the time alignment of the curves at different temperatures. We propose a model for time varying temperature profiles based on the local growth rate estimated from the experimental data. This allows us to estimate the most likely hatching time for a sample of larvae from the crime scene. Asymptotic properties are provided for the estimators of the growth curves and the hatching time. We explore via simulations the robustness of the method to errors in the estimated temperature profile. We also apply the methodology to data from two criminal cases from the United Kingdom.
翻译:法医昆虫学为犯罪现场调查提供了重要信息。 在本文中, 我们根据幼虫的长度、 犯罪现场温度剖面和幼虫发育实验数据, 提出一种方法来估计幼虫( 或蠕虫) 的孵化时间。 这要求根据幼虫暴露在数量相对较少的恒定温度剖面的实验来估计一个取决于时间的增长曲线。 由于温度影响发育速度, 一个关键步骤是不同温度曲线的时间对齐。 我们根据实验数据估计的当地生长速度, 提出了一个不同温度剖面的模型。 这使我们能够估计犯罪现场幼虫样本最有可能的孵化时间。 向生长曲线和孵化时间的估测者提供体特性。 我们通过模拟该方法的稳健性与估计温度剖面的误差进行探索。 我们还对来自英国的两个刑事案件的数据应用了该方法。