Several branches of the potential outcome causal inference literature have discussed the merits of blocking versus complete randomization. Some have concluded it can never hurt the precision of estimates, and some have concluded it can hurt. In this paper, we reconcile these apparently conflicting views, give a more thorough discussion of what guarantees no harm, and discuss how other aspects of a blocked design can cost, all in terms of precision. We discuss how the different findings are due to different sampling models and assumptions of how the blocks were formed. We also connect these ideas to common misconceptions, for instance showing that analyzing a blocked experiment as if it were completely randomized, a seemingly conservative method, can actually backfire in some cases. Overall, we find that blocking can have a price, but that this price is usually small and the potential for gain can be large. It is hard to go too far wrong with blocking.
翻译:潜在结果因果推断文献中的若干分支讨论了封隔和完全随机化的优点。 有些人认为它永远不会损害估计的精确性,有些人认为它可能伤害。 在本文中,我们调和这些显然相互矛盾的观点,更全面地讨论如何保证无害,并讨论封隔设计其他方面的成本,从准确性角度来说都是如此。我们讨论了不同的结果是如何由不同的抽样模型和对块块的形成方式的假设造成的。我们还将这些想法与共同的误解联系起来。例如,我们表明,分析封隔试验,好像它是完全随机化的一样,是一种看似保守的方法,在某些情况下实际上可以反弹。总的来说,我们发现封隔绝可以有一个价格,但这种价格通常很小,而且收益的可能性可能很大。封隔绝很难大错。