The moral decisions we make during this period, such as deciding whether to comply with quarantine rules, have unprecedented societal effects. We simulate the "escape from Milan" that occurred on March 7th-8th 2020, when many travelers moved from a high-risk zone (Milan) to southern regions of Italy (Campania and Lazio) immediately after an imminent lockdown was announced. Our simulations show that fewer than 50 active cases might have caused the sudden spread of the virus observed afterwards in these regions. The surprising influence of the actions of few individuals on societal dynamics challenges our cognitive expectations -- as in normal conditions, collective dynamics are rather robust to the decisions of few "cheaters". This situation therefore requires novel educational strategies that increase our awareness and understanding of the unprecedented effects of our individual moral decisions.
翻译：我们模拟了2020年3月7日至8日发生的“从米兰逃出”事件,当时许多旅行者在即将宣布封锁后立即从高风险地区(米兰)迁至意大利南部地区(坎帕尼亚和拉齐奥)。我们的模拟表明,只有不到50个活跃病例可能导致随后在这些地区观察到的病毒突然传播。少数个人的行动对社会动态的惊人影响挑战了我们的认知期望 -- -- 正如正常情况下一样,集体动态对少数“热量者”的决定相当强劲。 因此,这种情况需要新的教育战略,提高我们对我们个人道德决定前所未有影响的认识和理解。
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