Predicting customer future purchases and lifetime value is a key metrics for managing marketing campaigns and optimizing marketing spend. This task is specifically challenging when the relationships between the customer and the firm are of a noncontractual nature and therefore the future purchases need to be predicted based mostly on historical purchases. This work compares two approaches to predict customer future purchases, first using a 'buy-till-you-die' statistical model to predict customer behavior and later using a neural network on the same dataset and comparing the results. This comparison will lead to both quantitative and qualitative analysis of those two methods as well as recommendation on how to proceed in different cases and opportunities for future research.
翻译:预测客户未来的购买和终生价值是管理营销运动和优化营销支出的关键衡量标准,当客户与公司之间的关系具有非合同性质时,这一任务特别具有挑战性,因此,未来的采购需要主要根据历史采购情况预测,这项工作比较了预测客户未来采购的两种办法,首先使用“买到即决”统计模型来预测客户行为,然后利用同一数据集的神经网络来预测客户行为,然后比较结果,这种比较将导致对这两种方法进行定量和定性分析,并就如何在不同情况下开展工作提出建议,并为今后的研究提供机会。