We introduce dynamic probability kinematics (DPK), a method for an agent to mechanically update subjective beliefs in the presence of partial information. We then generalize DPK to dynamic imprecise probability kinematics (DIPK), which allows the agent to express their initial beliefs via a set of probabilities in order to further take ambiguity into account. We provide bounds for the lower probability associated with the updated probability sets, and we study the behavior of the latter, in particular contraction, dilation, and sure loss. Examples are provided to illustrate how the methods work.
翻译:我们引入了动态概率感官学(DPK),这是代理商在部分信息的情况下机械地更新主观信念的一种方法。然后我们将DPK概括为动态不精确的概率感官学(DIPK),使代理商能够通过一系列概率来表达其最初的信念,以便进一步考虑到模糊性。我们为与更新的概率集相关的较低概率提供了界限,我们研究了后者的行为,特别是收缩、推算和肯定损失。我们提供了例子来说明方法是如何运作的。