The sequence of moves in a dynamic team tournament may distort the ex-ante winning probabilities and harm efficiency. This paper compares eight different rules, suggested for soccer penalty shootouts, to determine the order of actions. Their fairness is analysed under three possible mathematical models of psychological pressure. We also discuss the probability of reaching the sudden death stage, as well as the complexity and strategy-proofness of the rules. In the case of stationary scoring probabilities, it remains sufficient to use static rules in order to improve fairness. However, it is worth compensating the second-mover by making it the first-mover in the sudden death stage. Our work has the potential to impact decision-makers who can achieve better outcomes in dynamic tournaments by a carefully chosen sequence of actions.
翻译：动态团队锦标赛的动作顺序可能会扭曲事前获胜概率和伤害效率。 本文比较了八条不同的规则, 建议用于足球决赛, 以决定行动顺序。 其公平性在三种可能的心理压力数学模型下分析。 我们还讨论了到达突然死亡阶段的概率, 以及规则的复杂性和战略的校正性。 在固定的评分概率的情况下, 使用静态规则来提高公平性就足够了。 但是, 值得通过在突然死亡阶段将其定为第一次来补偿第二局。 我们的工作有可能对决策者产生影响,他们可以通过精心选择的一系列行动在动态的锦标赛中取得更好的结果。
相关内容
微信扫码咨询专知VIP会员