The paper presents the one of possible approach to model the epidemic propagation. The proposed model is based on the mean-field control inside separate groups of population, namely, suspectable (S), infected (I), removed (R) and cross-immune (C). In the paper the numerical algorithm to solve such a problem is presented, which ensures the conservation the total mass of population during timeline. Numerical experiments demonstrate the result of modelling the propagation of COVID-19 virus during two 100 day periods in Novosibirsk (Russia).
翻译:本文介绍了一种可能的模式来模拟流行病的传播,提议的模式基于不同人口群体,即可怀疑(S)、受感染(I)、移走(R)和跨免疫(C)的中位面积控制。 文件中提出了解决这一问题的数字算法,以确保在时间表期间保护人口总数。数字实验表明在诺沃西比尔斯克(俄罗斯)两个100天期间对COVID-19病毒的传播进行模拟的结果。