The COVID-19 outbreak is asynchronous in US counties. Mitigating the COVID-19 transmission requires not only the state and federal level order of protective measures such as social distancing and testing, but also public awareness of time-dependent risk and reactions at county and community levels. We propose a robust approach to estimate the heterogeneous progression of SARS-CoV-2 at all US counties having no less than 2 COVID-19 associated deaths, and we use the daily probability of contracting (PoC) SARS-CoV-2 for a susceptible individual to quantify the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a community. We found that shortening by $5\%$ of the infectious period of SARS-CoV-2 can reduce around $39\%$ (or $78$K, $95\%$ CI: $[66$K $, 89$K $]$) of the COVID-19 associated deaths in the US as of 20 September 2020. Our findings also indicate that reducing infection and deaths by a shortened infectious period is more pronounced for areas with the effective reproduction number close to 1, suggesting that testing should be used along with other mitigation measures, such as social distancing and facial mask-wearing, to reduce the transmission rate. Our deliverable includes a dynamic county-level map for local officials to determine optimal policy responses and for the public to better understand the risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2 on each day.
翻译:减少COVID-19传播不仅需要州和联邦一级的保护措施,例如社会疏远和测试,还需要公众认识到各州和社区一级取决于时间的风险和反应。我们建议采取强有力的方法,估计美国所有不少于2COVID-19相关死亡的县SARS-COV-2的复杂进展,我们利用每天签订SARS-COV-2的可能性,使个人能够量化社区内SARS-COV-2传播的风险。我们发现SARS-COV-2传染期缩短了5美元,可以减少大约39美元(或78美元,95美元,CI:截至2020年9月20日,美国与COVID-19相关的死亡为1美元。我们的调查结果还表明,对于有效复制号接近1的地区,通过缩短传染期减少感染和死亡的可能性更为明显。 我们发现,在SARS-2传染期缩短5美元后,将S-CO-2传染期缩短为降低风险,同时将SAS-CO-2传染期的测试与其他减缓风险的每天措施一起使用,例如确定向SAR-CO-DM-S级交付最能化政策。