Solar Radiation Anomaly Events Modeling Using Spatial-Temporal Mutually Interactive Processes

Modeling and predicting solar events, in particular, the solar ramping event is critical for improving situational awareness for solar power generation systems. Solar ramping events are significantly impacted by weather conditions such as temperature, humidity, and cloud density. Discovering the correlation between different locations and times is a highly challenging task since the system is complex and noisy. We propose a novel method to model and predict ramping events from spatial-temporal sequential solar radiation data based on a spatio-temporal interactive Bernoulli process. We demonstrate the good performance of our approach on real solar radiation datasets.