Planetary Causal Inference: Implications for the Geography of Poverty

Earth observation data such as satellite imagery can, when combined with machine learning, can have far-reaching impacts on our understanding of the geography of poverty through the prediction of living conditions, especially where government-derived economic indicators are either unavailable or potentially untrustworthy. Recent work has progressed in using Earth Observation (EO) data not only to predict spatial economic outcomes but also to explore cause and effect, an understanding which is critical for downstream policy analysis. In this review, we first document the growth of interest in using satellite images together with EO data in causal analysis. We then trace the relationship between spatial statistics and machine learning methods before discussing four ways in which EO data has been used in causal machine learning pipelines -- (1.) poverty outcome imputation for downstream causal analysis, (2.) EO image deconfounding, (3.) EO-based treatment effect heterogeneity, and (4.) EO-based transportability analysis. We conclude by providing a step-by-step workflow for how researchers can incorporate EO data in causal ML analysis going forward, outlining major choices of data, models, and evaluation metrics.