Precipitation nowcasting is to predict the future rainfall intensity over a short period of time, which mainly relies on the prediction of radar echo sequences. Though convolutional neural network (CNN) and recurrent neural network (RNN) are widely used to generate radar echo frames, they suffer from inductive bias (i.e., translation invariance and locality) and seriality, respectively. Recently, Transformer-based methods also gain much attention due to the great potential of Transformer structure, whereas short-term dependencies and autoregressive characteristic are ignored. In this paper, we propose a variant of Transformer named patches with 3D-temporal convolutional Transformer network (PTCT), where original frames are split into multiple patches to remove the constraint of inductive bias and 3D-temporal convolution is employed to capture short-term dependencies efficiently. After training, the inference of PTCT is performed in an autoregressive way to ensure the quality of generated radar echo frames. To validate our algorithm, we conduct experiments on two radar echo dataset: Radar Echo Guangzhou and HKO-7. The experimental results show that PTCT achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance compared with existing methods.
翻译:最近,基于变压器的方法也由于变压器结构的巨大潜力而引起极大关注,而短期依赖性和自动递减特征却被忽视。本文提出一个变式变式变式,名为3D-时空变压器网络(变压器网络)和经常神经网络(RNNN),其中原框架被分成多个补丁,以消除感应偏差的制约,3D-时变压器被用来有效捕捉短期依赖性。经过培训后,PTCT的推论以自动递方式进行,以确保生成的雷达回响框架的质量。为了验证我们的算法,我们用两种雷达回声数据系统进行实验:雷达光学和H-7的实验性能。