To prevent the spread of COVID-19, many cities, states, and countries have `locked down', restricting economic activities in non-essential sectors. Such lockdowns have substantially shrunk production in most countries. This study examines how the economic effects of lockdowns in different regions interact through supply chains, a network of firms for production, simulating an agent-based model of production on supply-chain data for 1.6 million firms in Japan. We further investigate how the complex network structure affects the interactions of lockdowns, emphasising the role of upstreamness and loops by decomposing supply-chain flows into potential and circular flow components. We find that a region's upstreamness, intensity of loops, and supplier substitutability in supply chains with other regions largely determine the economic effect of the lockdown in the region. In particular, when a region lifts its lockdown, its economic recovery substantially varies depending on whether it lifts lockdown alone or together with another region closely linked through supply chains. These results propose the need for inter-region policy coordination to reduce the economic loss from lockdowns.
翻译:为了防止COVID-19的蔓延,许多城市、州和国家已经“关闭”了,限制了非必要部门的经济活动。这种封锁使大多数国家的生产大幅度缩减。本研究报告审查了不同区域封闭的经济影响如何通过供应链(生产企业网络)相互作用,模拟了日本160万家公司供应链数据生产以代理为基础的模式。我们进一步调查复杂的网络结构如何影响封闭的相互作用,强调上游和循环的作用,将供应链流动分解为潜在和循环流动部分。我们发现,一个区域的上游、循环强度和供应方在供应链与其他地区的可替代性在很大程度上决定了封闭在本区域的经济影响。特别是,当一个区域解除了封闭时,其经济复苏将在很大程度上取决于它是单独解除封闭还是与通过供应链密切相连的另一个区域一道解除封锁。这些结果表明,有必要进行区域间政策协调,以减少封闭造成的经济损失。