Results in contact sports like Rugby are mainly interpreted in terms of the ability and/or luck of teams. But this neglects the important role of the {\em motivation} of players, reflected in the effort exerted in the game. Here we present a Bayesian hierarchical model to infer the main features that explain score differences in rugby matches of the English Premiership Rugby 2020/2021 season. The main result is that, indeed, {\em effort} (seen as a ratio between the number of tries and the scoring kick attempts) is highly relevant to explain outcomes in those matches.
翻译:橄榄球等接触性运动的成果主要以球队的能力和(或)运气来解释。但是,这忽略了球员(em)动机的重要作用,这反映在游戏中的努力中。这里我们展示了一种贝叶斯等级模型,用以推断解释橄榄球比赛中英国总理鲁格比2020/2021季的分数差异的主要特征。主要结果是,实际上,(以尝试次数和打分次数之比看)对于解释这些比赛的结果非常相关。