Modified treatment policies are a widely applicable class of interventions useful for studying the causal effects of continuous exposures. Approaches to evaluating their causal effects assume no interference, meaning that such effects cannot be learned from data in settings where the exposure of one unit affects the outcomes of others, as is common in spatial or network data. We introduce a new class of intervention, induced modified treatment policies, which we show identify such causal effects in the presence of network interference. Building on recent developments for causal inference in networks, we provide flexible, semi-parametric efficient estimators of the statistical estimand. Numerical experiments demonstrate that an induced modified treatment policy can eliminate the causal, or identification, bias that results from network interference. We use the methodology developed to evaluate the effect of zero-emission vehicle uptake on air pollution in California, strengthening prior evidence.
翻译:修正治疗策略是一类广泛适用的干预措施,适用于研究连续暴露的因果效应。评估其因果效应的现有方法假设不存在干扰,这意味着当一个单位的暴露影响其他单位的结果时(如空间或网络数据中常见的情况),无法从数据中学习此类效应。我们引入了一类新的干预措施——诱导修正治疗策略,并证明其可在存在网络干扰的情况下识别此类因果效应。基于网络因果推断的最新进展,我们提供了统计估计量的灵活、半参数有效估计器。数值实验表明,诱导修正治疗策略能够消除由网络干扰导致的因果偏差或识别偏差。我们应用所开发的方法评估了加利福尼亚州零排放车辆普及对空气污染的影响,强化了先前的证据。