广义幻想板球中的技能主导性分析 (Analysing Skill Predominance in Generalized Fantasy Cricket)

In fantasy sports, strategic thinking-not mere luck-often defines who wins and who falls short. As fantasy cricket grows in popularity across India, understanding whether success stems from skill or chance has become both an analytical and regulatory question. This study introduces a new limited-selection contest framework in which participants choose from four expert-designed teams and share prizes based on the highest cumulative score. By combining simulation experiments with real performance data from the 2024 Indian Premier League (IPL), we evaluate whether measurable skill emerges within this structure. Results reveal that strategic and informed team selection consistently outperforms random choice, underscoring a clear skill advantage that persists despite stochastic variability. The analysis quantifies how team composition, inter-team correlation, and participant behaviour jointly influence winning probabilities, highlighting configurations where skill becomes statistically dominant. These findings provide actionable insights for players seeking to maximise returns through strategy and for platform designers aiming to develop fair, transparent, and engaging skill-based gaming ecosystems that balance competition with regulatory compliance.

翻译：在幻想体育中，战略思维——而非单纯运气——往往决定胜负。随着幻想板球在印度日益普及，理解成功源于技能还是机遇已成为一个兼具分析与监管意义的问题。本研究提出一种新的有限选择竞赛框架：参与者从四支专家设计的队伍中进行选择，并根据最高累计得分共享奖金。通过将仿真实验与2024年印度超级联赛（IPL）的真实表现数据相结合，我们评估了该结构下是否显现出可量化的技能。结果表明，具有战略性和信息依据的队伍选择持续优于随机选择，这揭示了即使在随机波动下依然存在的明确技能优势。该分析量化了队伍构成、队伍间相关性及参与者行为如何共同影响获胜概率，并明确了技能在统计意义上占主导的配置条件。这些发现为寻求通过策略最大化收益的玩家提供了可行见解，也为平台设计者开发公平、透明且引人入胜的技能型游戏生态系统提供了参考，以实现竞争性与监管合规性的平衡。