考虑天气过程随机性的风电场群概率预测及系统优化调度方法

项目名称： 考虑天气过程随机性的风电场群概率预测及系统优化调度方法

项目编号： No.51477156

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 电工技术

项目作者： 王伟胜

作者单位： 中国电力科学研究院有限公司

项目金额： 75万元

中文摘要： 现有风电功率预测系统均未实现对区域风电场群的概率预测，限制了风电调度的优化空间，给电力系统的安全运行带来较大风险。本申请以集合数值天气预报为基础，通过研究不同集合成员对不同天气过程的预测误差分布特征，构建基于天气过程不确定性的风电场概率预测模型；研究具有强相关性随机变量的误差相关结果特征及联合概率分布求解方法，构建具有强相关性风电场群的概率预测模型；研究含大规模风电并网的优化调度建模方法及快速求解算法，为电力系统运行提供包括机组组合及发电计划的调度策略；研究考虑风电出力随机性和相关性的系统运行风险评估算法，保证系统的安全稳定运行。本研究采用理论创新，数学建模，算法求解和动态仿真相结合的方式，建立基于概率预测的风电优化调度模型，破解我国风电调度面临的难题，提高风电消纳能力，降低系统运行风险，为我国大规模风电并网的优化调度问题提供技术支撑。

中文关键词： 风电场；功率预测；概率预测；优化调度；风险评估

英文摘要： Aggregated wind power probabilistic prediction is not considered in any existing wind power prediction system. This situation limits the application value of wind power prediction in wind power schedule. This proposal is to study the probabilistic characteristic of the ensemble numerical weather prediction members in different weather process. The wind power probabilistic prediction method based on random weather process will be proposed. Secondly， based on a practical algorithm of superposition of random variables with correlation， the aggregated wind power probabilistic prediction will be modeled.Afterwards， the proposal is to study the optimal schedule model and the quick solving algorithm a in order to provide schdule strategy for the system. The proposal will also study the evaluation of the system operation risk， in which the stochastic characteristic and correlation of wind power will be considered. This proposal is to solve the issues of wind power schedule by combining of theory innovation， modeling， algorithm for solving and dynamic simulation method. A practical schedule model based on probabilistic prediction will be set up to provide technical support for the safety operation of bulk grid with large-scale wind power integration.

英文关键词： wind farm;power prediction;probabilistic prediction;optimal schedule;risk evaluation