考虑功率预测的风电场有功功率预测控制策略研究

项目名称： 考虑功率预测的风电场有功功率预测控制策略研究

项目编号： No.51477174

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 电工技术

项目作者： 叶林

作者单位： 中国农业大学

项目金额： 78万元

中文摘要： 本项目拟以风电场非平稳的风电数据序列为研究对象，在数据辨识和风电场动态等值建模基础上，建立一种自适应插值的变时间尺度超短期功率预测模型；分析风电功率预测误差的概率分布特性、估计表征预测误差不确定性分布的置信区间；研究基于空间相关性的风电功率波动特性，揭示风电功率随时间、空间变化基本规律；建立基于数值天气预报的降、降尺度功率预测模型研究，开展基于空间相关性的短期风电功率预测模型研究；结合超短期风电功率预测，提出风电场模型预测控制策略及算法，对风机/风电场的输出功率进行滚动预测控制，建立多时间尺度风电功率预测的调度控制策略，对风电场的输出功率进行预测控制和协调优化调度，可将并网运行风电的不确定性转化为量化的可预测、可控性，有效的降低风电随机性、波动性对电网安全稳定运行的影响，提高风电消纳能力，为风电场并网安全经济运行提供科学决策依据和理论基础。

中文关键词： 风力发电；风电功率预测；模型预测控制；风电场；新能源电力系统

英文摘要： In this project, an adaptive interpolation ultra short-term wind power prediction model with variable timescale will be developed corresponding to non-stationary wind data based on data identification and dynamic equivalent modeling of wind farm. Probability distributions of wind power prediction error will be analyzed and confidence intervals will be estimated to characterize uncertainty of prediction error distribution. Fluctuation characteristics of wind power will be investigated by use of spatial correlation to reveal the changing properties of wind power over time and space. Both downscaling and upscaling wind power prediction models will be created based on numerical weather prediction(NWP) data, leading to a short-term wind power prediction model considering spatial correlation. A novel predictive control strategy and algorithm for output power control in wind farm will be created on the basis of ultra short-term wind power prediction results. A multi timescale predictive control & dispatching strategy will be also established to achieve coordinately scheduling and optimized dispatching of active power in wind farm. This significantly turns uncertainty of wind power into predictability and controllability with certain quantity to some extent, thus helps to effectively reduce the wind randomness, the impact of volatility on power system safe and stable operation, improve absorptive capacity of grid-connected wind farms. Research achievements of the project will provide scientific and theoratical basis for the safe and economic operation of large scale wind farm in power systems.

英文关键词： wind power generation;wind power prediction;model predictive control;wind farm;Renewable Power System