关联基础设施网络弹性提升的机制与方法研究——以城市住区为例

项目名称： 关联基础设施网络弹性提升的机制与方法研究——以城市住区为例

项目编号： No.71301175

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 李玉龙

作者单位： 中央财经大学

项目金额： 21.7万元

中文摘要： 建设一个既能抵御高强度灾害，又能减缓灾害传播速度，并从灾害中迅速恢复的弹性基础设施系统非常重要。而基础设施之间的相互关联，决定了应从整体上研究关联基础设施网络弹性提升的机制与方法。为了准确度量关联基础设施系统的弹性，本项目拟通过构建关联基础设施网络模型，设计一个关联基础设施网络的综合绩效评价指标，并基于最大流理论与进化算法，探索计算该指标的算法；并在上述基础上，根据灾害发生后系统绩效变化的阶段特征，从抵御灾害发生、减缓灾害传播、提升灾害期服务能力和高效完成系统恢复等四个方面，提出关联基础设施网络弹性提升的四道递进式应急反应机制。应用新的系统绩效评价指标，第一道机制将从一个新的脆性评价视角，识别网络关键组件和关键位置，制定灾前预防方案；后三道机制将依次构建三个多目标规划模型，探索灾中、灾后提升系统绩效的量化方法，为决策者在相应阶段权衡资源、时间与系统绩效等多目标，进行定量化决策提供依据。

中文关键词： 关联关键基础设施；基础设施安全管理；弹性提升；多目标规划；系统可靠性

英文摘要： It is very important to build a more resilient infrastructure system that is not only able to withstand the high intensity disasters, but also mitigate the propagation speed of the disasters, and recovery rapidly from the disasters. What's more, because different types of infrastructure are interdependent, we must research the mechanism and methods to improve resilience of interdependent infrastructures from an overall perspective. In order to accurately measure the resilience of the interdependent infrastructure system, the proposal intends to build an interdependent infrastructure network model, and then design an integral performance evaluation index on interdependent infrastructure network and explore the algorithm to calculate the index through the integration of the max-flow theory and evolutionary algorithms. On this basis, according to the stage characteristics of the system performance change after the disasters, the proposal proposed four progressive emergency response mechanisms to improve the resilience of interdependent infrastructure network. Four progressive emergency response mechanisms are in turn withstanding the disaster, slowing down the spread of the disaster, enhancing service capabilities for disaster period and completing efficiently the system recovery. By means of using the new performa

英文关键词： interdependent critical infrastructure；infrastructure safety management；resilience promotion；multi-objective programming；system reliability