一种高效的流域蒸散过程模拟方法及其不确定性研究

项目名称： 一种高效的流域蒸散过程模拟方法及其不确定性研究

项目编号： No.41271003

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 占车生

作者单位： 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所

项目金额： 71万元

中文摘要： 青年科学基金进展顺利，在该基金资助下，已出版专著1部，发表SCI论文7篇，EI论文5篇，CSCD论文3篇。该基金提出了一种联合分布式水文模型(DSM)和遥感蒸散二层模型(RSTM)的区域蒸散模拟思路，丰富和创新了区域蒸散研究的学科内容。该思路是对区域蒸散发过程精确模拟的初步探索，但是模拟效率依然是一个瓶颈，而且缺乏预报功能。基于此，拟申请的项目将在其基础上，基于集合卡尔曼滤波算法，将RSTM和DSM分别作为观测算子和模型算子，改进对非状态参数-流域蒸散的同化，从而建立一种可操作性强的流域蒸散发过程高效模拟方法，即流域蒸散同化系统(ETDS)。同时，利用新一代不确定性量化平台PSUADE对ETDS进行不确定性定量分析，进一步优化ETDS和提高模拟效率。可以预期，本项目成果不仅可以丰富创新区域蒸散发过程模拟的学科内容，而且为变化环境下的水资源可持续利用和高效管理提供科学决策。

中文关键词： 蒸散发；数据同化；水文模型；遥感反演；流域

英文摘要： My NSFC project for Youngs has been conducted very well, and the part expected task has exceeded the expected goal. I have published a monograph, 7 SCI indexed papers, 5 EI indexed papers, and 3 CSCD indexed papers under its funding suppot. The project proposed a new method of combining distributed hydrological model (DSM) with remote sensing evapotranspiration (ET) two-layer model (RSTM) to simulate regional ET, and the method is kind of innovation for regional ET study.The method for the regional ET also is regarded as the preliminary exploration of the accurate simulation of ET process, however there is a bottleneck for simulation efficiency and the lack of forecasting function. In view of this consideration, the applied continuous-funded project will try to establish a practical and efficient simulation approach for watershed ET process, namely watershed ET assimilation system (ETDS); the RSTM and DSM are used as the observation operator and the model operator of ETDS, and the sequential assimilation is based on ensemble Kalman filter algorithm which will be improved to be suitable to the assimilation of non-conditional parameters. Moreover, the uncertainty of ETDS will be analyzed quantitatively by using the PSUADE, and obtain a further optimization and a higher simulation accuracy. It must be expected that

英文关键词： Evapotranspiration；Data assimilation；Hydrologic model；Remote sensing retrieval；River basin