耕地保护和节约集约目标下城乡建设用地置换研究：运行机理、风险识别与优化模拟

项目名称： 耕地保护和节约集约目标下城乡建设用地置换研究：运行机理、风险识别与优化模拟

项目编号： No.41201178

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 地理学

项目作者： 陈春

作者单位： 重庆交通大学

项目金额： 23万元

中文摘要： 本项目针对我国城乡建设用地置换风险频现且研究方面存在理论与方法缺陷的状况，拟采用定量模型- - 风险辨别- - 优化模拟的思路，开展耕地保护和节约集约目标下城乡建设用地置换的运行机理、风险识别与制度优化研究。项目选择重庆地票模式为典型案例，结合核心-边缘理论和博弈模型研究运行机理；开发基于系统动力学的城乡建设用地置换需求模型并进行仿真模拟；基于质性研究的结果，结合层次分析法和风险矩阵法，开发城乡建设用地置换风险识别与评价模型以及风险分解与防范模型；构建多目标下城乡建设用地置换制度优化模型，并用倒推法提出优化政策包。从科学意义讲，本项目的开展可以实现城乡建设用地置换研究的理论创新；从实践意义讲，本项目的开展可以为我国城乡建设用地置换风险防控和优化管理提供定量化的决策支持。

中文关键词： 城乡建设用地置换；风险识别；核心-边缘模型；博弈模型；供求机制

英文摘要： Risks appear frequently during the replacement of urban and rural construction land in China, whereas theoretical research on this problem is scarce.This project, choosing Chongqing as a case study, plans to research on the operation mechanism, risk identification and system optimization of urban and rural construction land replacement under the goal of protecting cultivated land and intensive land use. Based on the Core-Periphery thoery and Game Model, the operation mechanism of urban and rural construction land replacement is analyzed. System dynamics is utilized to simulate the demand of urban and rural construction land replacement. According to the result of qualitative research, the risk identification and evaluation model is developed through analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and risk matrix method, then the risk decomposition and prevention model is set up.Finally, under the multi-objective optimization model, the optimizing policy of urban and rural construction land replacement is put forward. This study will have innovative contribution to the theoretical research on the urban and rural construction land replacement, and provide quantitative decision support for institutional optimization.

英文关键词： urban and rural construction land replacement；risk identification；core-periphery model；game theory model；supply-demand mechanism