越南中北部稻飞虱回迁种群的崩溃与重建及其预测意义

项目名称： 越南中北部稻飞虱回迁种群的崩溃与重建及其预测意义

项目编号： No.31471763

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 农业科学

项目作者： 翟保平

作者单位： 南京农业大学

项目金额： 85万元

中文摘要： 稻飞虱（褐飞虱和白背飞虱）是我国水稻生产中的头号大害虫，其虫源主要来自越南中北部。长期以来人们一直认为，稻飞虱每年春季迁入我国秋季再迁回越南，构成一个完整的循环。但在与越南植保部门合作稻飞虱监测与防控研究过程中我们意外发现，由于越南中北部两茬稻之间长达三个月的间隔期造成食物链断裂而使稻飞虱回迁种群全军覆没，但在翌年三月又由越南中南四省稻飞虱虫源的补充而得以重建。这意味着，越南中南四省稻飞虱的发生动态将直接影响我国稻飞虱虫源的形成过程从而决定当年我国稻飞虱的发生程度，因此可能成为我国稻飞虱迁入期、迁入量和主降区的早期预警指标。为此，我们拟根据2008年以来的实地调查数据和越方提供的虫情资料，结合卫星遥感提取水稻种植和发育状况，分别从异质种群和景观生态的不同视角，通过GIS时空分析和WRF平台上的三维轨迹分析，揭示我国稻飞虱虫源的形成过程和机制及其影响因子，提取我国稻飞虱大发生的早期预警指标。

中文关键词： 稻飞虱；环境因子；轨迹分析；预测预报

英文摘要： The rice planthoppers (RPH, Nilaparvata lugens & Sogatella furcifera) are the most serious pests of the Asian rice production. People have long been believing that the hoppers migrate regularly northward in spring and summer and southward in autumn, that perform a perfect loop between Indo-China Peninsula and the mainland of China. However, some gaps in the loop were noticed during a field survey in northern Vietnam in November of 2009. Rice is the only food for RPH, but there was no rice planting in mid and north Vietnam during a 3-months interval between the two cropping seasons (summer-autumn rice and winter-spring rice). The broken food chain makes the returned hopper populations collapse completely, but then the hoppers from mid-south Vietnam (Quang Nam, Quang Ngai, Binh Dinh and Phu Yen, four provinces, from 13oN to 15.5oN), where there are year-round rice cropping, recolonize the winter-spring rice in mid-north Vietnam during next March. It is means that the hopper population dynamics in mid-south Vietnam will affect the formation process of source hopper populations and thus determine the damage extent of that year in China, so that makes a possible early warning index for the RPH immigration periods, quantities and spatial distribution in the spring invasion into southern China, So, we will reveal the biological and environmental factors that influence the formation process and dynamic machanisms of source hopper populations by spatio-temporal analysis with GIS and trajectory analysis on WRF through metapopulation approach and landscape ecology approach respectively, based on our six-year field survay data in Vietnam since 2008, the light-trap catch data provided by Vietnamese collaborators, and rice planting and developmental data extracted from satellite images, thereby obtain an operable early warning index for the RPH outbreaks in China.

英文关键词： Rice planthoppers;environmental factors;trajectory analysis;outbreak forecasting