在线社会风险感知的计算方法与社会风险评价支持技术研究

项目名称： 在线社会风险感知的计算方法与社会风险评价支持技术研究

项目编号： No.61473284

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 自动化技术、计算机技术

项目作者： 唐锡晋

作者单位： 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院

项目金额： 82万元

中文摘要： 1986年德国学者贝克提出风险社会描述风险与和谐、危机与平衡并存的社会发展阶段。自然、工程、经济、健康、国家安全及社会等各类复杂系统的风险建模、量化分析与评价始终是系统工程理论方法的研究重点。本项目针对最复杂的社会系统，借鉴社会心理中社会风险研究的成果，研究网络民意折射的社会风险；区别于网络情绪研究可用较为稳定的情绪词典，将动态涌现的新闻热搜词、BBS发帖及微博对应到不同的社会风险类别，探索迁移风险识别的混合机器学习技术，支持大数据下基于不同在线网络行为的社会风险水平的计算；构造风险词库，建立在线社会风险综合指数，强化社会系统评价的数据驱动的量化参数计算；研究显著的社会风险事件的演化进程，以仿真计算和实证研究风险迁移模式。从在线社会风险水平感知计算到社会风险事件成因识别及演化迁移判断计算，为舆情分析、应急与公共管理、社会稳定等复杂问题求解示范可操作的大数据下综合集成支持。

中文关键词： 社会复杂系统；综合集成；社会风险感知；意见挖掘；系统评价技术

英文摘要： In 1986, a German Scholar Beck proposed the concept of Risk Society to indicate the societal development with risk and harmony, crisis and balance. Risk modeling, quantitative analysis and evaluation toward a variety of complex systems, e.g. nature, engineering, economy, health, national security and the society, have always been foci in systems engineering studies. This project focuses on the most complex system, societal system and study the societal risks reflected by on-line community opinions with the socio psychology research results. Being different from the rather stable emotion dictionary for sentiments analysis of microblogs, this study will map the emerging hot search news, BBS posts and microblogs to respective risk category (societal risk event), explore the hybrid machine learning technologies to identify the changing risks, in order to support computing societal risks levels based on those different on-line behaviors. This study will construct the dictionary and corpus of social risks, and develop a composite index of the on-line societal risks, to emphasize the data-driven societal risks evaluation. Moreover, the evolution of the typical societal risk events will be explored to illustrate the risk transfer by simulation and empirical studies. From the on-line societal risks awareness to the identification of societal risks factors, and then to the risk transfer judgment, this project tries to demonstrate the meta-synthetic support with big data for the complex societal issues, such as public concerns, emergency and public management, and societal stability, so on.

英文关键词： Social Coplex Systems;Meta-Synthesis;Societal Risk Awareness;Opinion Mining;Systems Evaluation Techniques