基于可靠度的道路线形参数选用及安全性评价研究

项目名称： 基于可靠度的道路线形参数选用及安全性评价研究

项目编号： No.51478115

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 建筑环境与结构工程学科

项目作者： 程建川

作者单位： 东南大学

项目金额： 80万元

中文摘要： 目前，对道路线形设计参数的选用除与规范进行符合性检查外，也常用线形曲率变化率、运行速度与设计速度差、相邻路段运行速度差等指标评价道路路线设计的质量及其安全性，但这些方法对特别是准临界参数选用及三维线形的安全性评价却不够有效，缺乏对参数满足规范的设计未必是优化的安全的设计现象的量化批判手段，而引入可靠度理论有望解决这些问题。 研究首先采用ADAMS虚拟样机仿真软件对道路平、纵、横的主要参数进行敏感性分析以确定关键的线形参数；然后采用一次二阶矩中心点法和蒙特卡洛模拟法进行可靠度计算，得出不同参数供给值对应的失效概率；基于此建立考虑平、纵、横参数的安全性评价模型，得到安全性评价指标阈值；并通过驾驶仿真模拟、ADAMS虚拟样机技术、构建三维模型及实际事故数据对模型检验与校正。 研究成果对提高道路线形设计质量及安全性、路线设计规范相应指标选用乃至今后规范的修订完善均有很高的应用价值。

中文关键词： 道路路线设计；可靠度理论；安全；虚拟样机；驾驶模拟

英文摘要： At present, besides the design policy audit, the evaluation of road geometric parameters' selection is often conducted by the checks of the curvature change rate(CCR), the speed differences between operating speed and design speed as well as the speed differences between adjacent sections. However, these indexes work not well to evaluate the parameters that are closed to the limited values in design specifications and the 3D road alignments. Especially, there lack methods to solve the problems called designs only conforming to specifications would be not optimized and safe designs phenomenon. Hopefully, with the application of reliability theory, the problems could be treated. This research will firstly make sensitivity analysis to the parameters of horizontal alignment, vertical alignment and cross section by using virtual prototyping ADAMS, to fix the most significant parameters. Secondly, use the first order second moment center point method and the Monte Carlo simulation method to calculate failure probability of each parameters corresponding to the different supply values. Then, a 3D road alignments safety evaluation model based on reliability would be set up. And finally, the model will be validated and possibly modified by using driving simulation, virtual prototyping ADAMS, building real 3D model and the related traffic accidents data. The research results will improve the selection of road alignment parameters and the safety. They will be also helpful for the optimization of the related road alignment parameters in the future revisions of the design specifications.

英文关键词： road geometric design;reliability theory;safety;virtual prototype;driving simulation