基于组合的地震易损性与钢筋混凝土结构工程全寿命周期地震损失成本分析研究

项目名称： 基于组合的地震易损性与钢筋混凝土结构工程全寿命周期地震损失成本分析研究

项目编号： No.51468050

项目类型： 地区科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 建筑科学

项目作者： 朱健

作者单位： 宁夏大学

项目金额： 48万元

中文摘要： 近年来地震、飓风等自然灾害频现，给人类社会造成巨大的危害。世界各国政府相继出台巨灾保险政策加以应对，我国由于理论研究缺乏等原因导致自然灾害救援机制长期依赖政府、没有形成成熟市场化的防灾减灾机制。基于此，本项目以我国西部典型地震高烈度地区工程结构为研究对象，以基于性能的工程设计为原则，通过大样本随机统计概率研究了典型建筑结构全寿命期内的地震损失维护成本，将基于组合的地震易损性分析方法率先应用于国内研究，构建了考虑近断层强脉冲地震波的地震风险概率算法模型，建立完善的结构性和非结构性构件分级目录库检索体系，通过构件级别损伤状态概率描述，将结构动力损伤分析与经济分析很好地结合了起来，合理地进行建筑结构构件损伤级别与对应的维护加固成本值之间的合理估算，并探索性将概预算定额更好地应用于工程全周期地震成本的多学科交叉研究中，对确定地震保险费率和将来制订切实可行的地震巨灾保险政策奠定坚实可行的理论基础。

中文关键词： 钢筋混凝土结构工程全寿命周期成本评估；概率地震风险性；基于组合的地震易损性；随机模拟；敏感性分析

英文摘要： In recent years,natural disasters such as earthquakes and huricanes have huge negitive impact on human societies. Huge disasters insurance policies have to be published by several major courtries' government in the world. But because of lack applied theories and put into practice, disasters rescue mechanism in China is still mainly rely on central government Exclusively moment and is far from come into being marketing in diasater prevention. So some classic buildings in high seismic hazardous zone of Western China have been chosen,and Life-cycle seismic loss estimation and reinforced strategy of damaged buildings researched based stochastic simulation under the rule of performance project.A innoviate assembly-based vulnerability method has been used calculated buildings damage and loss estimation. Seismic hazardous model including near fault and strong pulse wave are created.At the same time, a kind of contents search system of structural and non-structural members is also established.There is a good connection between strcutural dynamic vulnerability and economic cost analysis through probablistic characteristic discription of members in buildins. A good balance estimation between damage limit states and corresponding reasonable reinforced cost evaluation is reached. Moreover,Chinese budgt quota is been used reseach Life-cycle seismic cost estimation experimentally based the multi-subject crossing research.The research project will became fundamental stone in determine seismic insurance ratio and future practical seismic insurance policy of China.

英文关键词： Life-cycle loss estimation of RC buildings;Probabilistic seismic hazard;Assembly-based seismic vulnerability;Stochastic simulation;Factors sensitivity analysis