基于伤病员发生建模的非常规突发事件应急救援策略与关键技术研究

项目名称： 基于伤病员发生建模的非常规突发事件应急救援策略与关键技术研究

项目编号： No.91224005

项目类型： 重大研究计划

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 宏观管理与政策

项目作者： 张鹭鹭

作者单位： 中国人民解放军第二军医大学

项目金额： 95万元

中文摘要： 本研究聚焦非常规突发事件伤病员发生规律，在对既往非常规突发事件伤病员回顾性分析和调研的基础上，构建非常规突发事件伤病员数据库；研究伤病员的伤情评估标准与方法，建立包括标准化伤情、伤类和复杂程度等在内的非常规突发事件多维伤病谱；运用系统动力学、复杂系统建模等手段，构建非常规突发事件伤病员发生复杂模型体系，对不同规模、不同类别、不同背景的非常规突发事件伤病员发生进行数字化模拟，描述相应的伤病员发生规律，发现伤病员发生总量、结构、分布特征与变化趋势；建立应急医学救援组织指挥的多主体协同模型，通过模型的干预实验，形成基于循证决策的协同方案与策略；集成计算机技术、地理信息技术和决策支持技术，研制非常规突发事件可视化伤病员地理信息系统，以及应急医学救援组织决策支持系统，实现医学救援协同策略与方案的快速生成，形成非常规突发事件应急医学救援组织的核心技术体系。

中文关键词： 地震；创伤；建模；影响因素；系统动力学

英文摘要： The study mainly focuses on the generation law of casualties result from unconventional emergencies. Firstly, based on retrospective investigation on the casualties of previous unconventional emergencies, such as natural disasters, server infectious diseases，accident events, we structure casualties database for unconventional emergencies. Then the evaluating standard and methods of the casualties’ condition are established, as well as the multi-dimension disease and injure spectrum which includes casualties’ conditions, classification and complexities. Secondly, system dynamics and complex system modeling methods are used to establish the model system of casualties generation for unconventional emergencies. Then we simulate the casualties generation process under different event scale, types and backgrounds by using the model, which will shows the generation laws of casualties result from unconventional emergencies, including the total quantity, structure, distribution and change trend. Thirdly, establishing the multi-agent coordination model for organization and commanding in medical rescue of unconventional emergencies. Then to carry out intervention test based on the model, to formulate the coordinating scheme and strategies for unconventional emergencies. Fourthly, by using the technique of geographic inf

英文关键词： earthquake；trauma；modeling；influence factor；system dynamics