PPP项目社会风险的机理分析、动态评估与综合治理研究

项目名称： PPP项目社会风险的机理分析、动态评估与综合治理研究

项目编号： No.71472037

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 袁竞峰

作者单位： 东南大学

项目金额： 60万元

中文摘要： 基础设施PPP项目往往衍生出大量社会问题，本课题主要运用计算实验方法研究如何化解PPP项目社会风险。课题从分析PPP项目社会风险内涵、源头和利益相关者入手，研究利益相关者特性和风险决策认知行为，分析社会风险微观机制。构建PPP项目社会网络，结合多智能体（Agent）技术与社会网络分析，建立基于Agent和社会网络的能够反映不同利益相关者相互关联和作用的PPP项目社会风险计算实验平台。基于计算实验平台：1、通过模拟社会风险源攻击PPP项目社会网络，结合社会网络动静态分析和复杂网络传播动力学，研究社会风险形成机理和传导机制；2、通过分析社会网络的复杂性、有效性和可靠性，研究基于信息熵和脆弱性的PPP项目社会风险评估方法；3、设计PPP项目社会风险综合治理框架，评估不同框架下的社会风险，识别合理有效的社会风险治理模式。课题对提升PPP项目绩效、推动PPP项目可持续发展、促进社会稳定有重要作用。

中文关键词： PPP项目；社会风险；风险评估；风险治理；计算实验

英文摘要： The development of infrastructure Public Private Partnership (PPP) project would lead to lots of social problems. This research is focusing on the methods of formation mechanism, dynamic evaluation, and integrated governance for the social risks in infrastructure PPP projects by using computational experiments. The perception of social risks in PPP projects will be firstly analyzed, on the basis of which the sources of social risks in PPPs will further identified. Moreover, the individual characteristics as well as their behavior and risk decision facing the risks will be identified. Then the methods for conducting two-level soical network of PPP projects will be proposed. The Multiple Agent System (MAS) is used to improve the intelligence of nodes in social network, through which the platform of Agent Based Social Network (also is the platform of computational experiments) can be established. Based on the platform,following research work will be developed:Firstly,through simulating that the sources of social risk attack the social network of PPPs and calculating the parameters of social network, the evolution and formation mechanism of social risks in PPPs can be obtained; Secondly,the evaluation methods of social risk in PPPs can be further figured out based on the vulnerability of social network for by integrating the complexity, effectiveness, and reliability of social network through using information entropy. Finally, the computational experiments are desinged to test the proper and optimizational governance models for social risks in PPPs. The reseach can not only reduce the risks of PPP projects, but also improve the performance of PPP projects and faciliate the social stability.

英文关键词： PPP project;Social risks;Risk evaluation;Risk governance;Computing experiments