面向在轨航天器安全的空间碎片精准预警理论方法研究

项目名称： 面向在轨航天器安全的空间碎片精准预警理论方法研究

项目编号： No.U1231114

项目类型： 联合基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 高鹏骐

作者单位： 中国科学院国家天文台

项目金额： 50万元

中文摘要： 随着人类航天活动日益频繁，滞留在太空中的空间碎片急剧增加。高速运动的碎片会给航天器带来致命损伤。目前，我国在轨运行的卫星已有数十颗，在未来五到十年内可能超过百颗。这些卫星与国民经济关系密切，一旦受损，经济、社会影响巨大，甚至危及国家安全。我国载人航天计划正在由第一阶段向交会对接和长期运行的空间实验室过渡。空间碎片对我国的应用卫星和载人航天计划都已构成严重威胁，随着今后空间活动的增多，威胁将更加严重。我国的空间碎片预警工作与国外相比还存在较大差距，本课题直接从国家航天活动的需求出发，研究面向在轨航天器安全的空间碎片精准预警问题，对保护航天活动安全，服务国家战略安全需求都有重要的意义。主要研究内容包括：碰撞预警决策参数指标与定轨精度的相关性分析；基于空间目标三维信息的空间碎片精准预警计算方法研究；针对海量目标精准预警的并行计算方法研究；基于交会事件可视化分析的碰撞风险鲁棒预测方法研究。

中文关键词： 空间碎片；碰撞预警；碰撞概率；航天安全；

英文摘要： With fast increasing space activities, the space is getting more and more crowded by space debris, which will cause vital damages to space assets. Nowadays, tens of Chinese satellites are running on orbits. In the future 5 to 10 years, this number may change to more than 100. All these satellites are very important to our life. Once a satellite is damaged, the economy, social affairs and even the safety of our country will be affected greatly. The space activities of our country are now in an interim from step one to space library. Great threats have been put forward to both our satellite and manned spacecraft by space debris. With the increase of future space activities, the threats will be more and more serious. Till now, big gap on space debris collision warning technique still exists between ours and the developed countries’. In this proposal, the main emphasis has been put onto the accurate collision warning problem, to fulfill the great requirement from our country’s space activity. The implementation of this proposal will bring fatal significance to the safety of our space activity, and to the requirement of our country’s strategic safety. Main research contents include: analysis of relativity between collision warning decision-making parameter and accuracy of orbital data; accurate space debris collision

英文关键词： space debris；collision warning；collision probability；space safety；