不同尺度海洋溢油风险分区方法研究

项目名称： 不同尺度海洋溢油风险分区方法研究

项目编号： No.41306098

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 兰冬东

作者单位： 国家海洋环境监测中心

项目金额： 25万元

中文摘要： 突发性海洋溢油污染事故日趋频繁，科学合理的海洋溢油风险分区可为预防和减少这类事故提供管理依据。本项目基于典型的海洋溢油污染事故案例分析，总结溢油风险已有研究并借鉴环境风险系统和自然灾害风险系统已有研究，选择溢油风险系统的组成、量化方法以及风险分区三个方面开展深入研究，综合运用文献调研、现场踏查、机理分析、案例分析、模型构建和地理信息系统支持等方法与手段，构建海洋溢油风险系统、风险表征指标体系和量化模型，提出海洋溢油风险分区方法。并以大连市近岸海域和辽东湾海域两个尺度进行海洋溢油风险分区示范。项目研究对海洋溢油风险管理具有重要意义，能够为海洋溢油风险防范提供科学的决策依据。

中文关键词： 溢油风险；量化模型；分区方法；大连市近岸海域；辽东湾近岸海域

英文摘要： Abrupt marine oil spill pollution accidents occur more and more frequently. Scientific and rational zonation of marine oil spill risk could provide an important tool for preventing and reducing such accidents. The components and measuring method of the oil spill risk system and the risk zonation will be chosen for in-deep study, based on the analysis of typical cases of marine oil spill accidents occurred and summarizing the present oil spill risk theories, environmental risk theories and natural disaster risk theories. Furthermore, a technique to marine oil spill risk zonation will be proposed. It involves with building the risk system, index system and measuring model, which using the methods of literature research, field survey, mechanism analysis, case studies, model construction and GIS. The technique will be applied in the case of risk zonation of marine oil spill accident in Dalian and Liaodong Bay district. The study will be important to marine oil spill management by providing a scientific basis for decision making for marine oil spill prevention.

英文关键词： oil spill risk；measuring model；zoning technique；coastal areas of Dalian；Liaodong Bay coastal area