低碳约束下电动汽车产业风险评估研究

项目名称： 低碳约束下电动汽车产业风险评估研究

项目编号： No.71273031

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 唐葆君

作者单位： 北京理工大学

项目金额： 54万元

中文摘要： 气候变暖导致全球经济和环境可持续发展面临巨大挑战。在节能和低碳压力下，发展电动汽车成为全球汽车产业发展的重要方向，并逐渐为各国政府所重视。作为战略性新兴产业，电动汽车产业在发展过程中，面临能源供给、技术、政策、市场等诸多不确定性和随机性，形成了不同类型的风险。目前，针对电动汽车产业风险管理理论框架和理论体系相关研究刚刚起步。为此，本项目以电动汽车产业风险这个典型的复杂系统为研究对象，以现代综合风险、风险管理、系统科学为理论基础，通过层次分析、模糊识别、定性与定量综合集成等方法为研究手段，探讨电动汽车产业风险识别、评估、决策的综合分析方法。构建电动汽车产业风险评价指标体系，通过定性和定量综合集成分析，厘清电动汽车产业风险因素、易损性和风险程度，提出进行风险控制和规避的政策建议、管理模式和实现途径，为制定低碳经济的相关政策提供可靠依据和决策支持。

中文关键词： 低碳约束；电动汽车行业；风险评价；风险规避；

英文摘要： Climate warming brings on enormous challenge for the global economic and environmental sustainable development.Under the energy saving and low carbon pressure,the development of electric vehicles become an important direction of global automotive industry development ,and get attention of various countries'government gradually.As an strategic and emerging industry,electric vehicle industry faces the complex and changeable risk such as the energy supply risk,technology risk,policy risk,market risk et al,in the development process.At present, the study on the risk management theory frame and theoretical system has just been started.For this purpose,the electric vehicle industry risk system which is a typical complex system is taken as the research object ,and the theoring and tools such as the modern integrated risk, risk management,system science as theoretical basis,and the analytic hierarchy process, fuzzy identification, qualitative and quantitative integration methods are applied to discuss comprehensive analysis method for risk identification, assessment, decision making of electric vehicle industry,in this project,we construct the risk evaluation index system of electric vehicle industry,clarify the risk of hazard, vulnerability and risk degree for electric vehicle industry risk with qualitative and quanti

英文关键词： Low carbon restraint；Electric vehicles industry；Risk assessment；Risk evading；