基于情景模拟的湖泊流域环境适应性管理研究

项目名称： 基于情景模拟的湖泊流域环境适应性管理研究

项目编号： No.71471077

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 陈永泰

作者单位： 江苏大学

项目金额： 61万元

中文摘要： 湖泊流域环境管理是一类具有深度不确定性特征的大尺度复杂管理科学问题。拟在对我国典型湖泊流域社会、经济以及环境现状调研和系统分析的基础上，运用复杂系统科学思想、管理学基本原理和跨学科研究方法，探讨和研究湖泊流域环境管理的新模式--适应性管理。重点对湖泊流域环境适应性管理的组织执行体系、决策、协调机制等关键问题进行深入探讨；运用数据融合及智能计算等方法，对湖泊流域环境适应性管理应对各类不确定性的关键技术进行研究；运用情景模拟方法，初步构建能实现度量湖泊流域环境适应性管理决策方案的未来情景适应性的指标体系；进一步融合以上研究成果并应用于太湖流域水污染的管理中，构建湖泊流域环境适应性管理原型系统，并通过虚实互动对其进行有效性检验，从而进一步完善适应性管理基本理论。本项目对促进湖泊流域环境管理跨学科研究、丰富湖泊流域环境可持续发展乃至大尺度复杂系统问题管理的理论与方法具有重要的理论意义和现实价值。

中文关键词： 湖泊流域；环境适应性；适应性管理；情景模拟；情景鲁棒性

英文摘要： Environmental management of lake watershed is a large-scale complex scientific management problem which has deep uncertainty. This study combines the complexity system theory, the basic principle of management and the interdisciplinary research method, on the basis of the status survey and system analysis of social, economic and environmental of typical lake watershed in China, theoretically and methodologically explores the new theory of environmental management of lake watershed-Adaptive Management. This study mainly discusses the key problems such as organization system, decision-making mechanism and coordination mechanism; carries on an integrated research on various uncertainties in environmental management of lake watershed based on data fusion and intelligent computing; taking scenario robustness which based on scenario simulation as measurement index , constructs an index system which can measure the scenario adaptability of the environmental adaptive management decision-making plan in the future; further, integrates the results of above research and applies to the management of water pollution problem in Taihu watershed, constructs an environmental adaptive management prototype system of lake watershed, carries on virtual and real interaction research to test the effectiveness of the prototype system, and then improves the basic theory of adaptive management .It has important theoretical value and practical significance to facilitate interdisciplinary research of adaptive management of lake watershed environment, enhance the sustainable development and enrich the research of large-scale complex systems management problems.

英文关键词： Lake Watershed;Environmental Adaptation;Adaptive management;Scenario simulation;Scenario robustness