大都市主干道突发事件下临时交通隔离对刚性出行司机交通选择行为影响机理研究

项目名称： 大都市主干道突发事件下临时交通隔离对刚性出行司机交通选择行为影响机理研究

项目编号： No.51508319

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 建筑科学

项目作者： 张方伟

作者单位： 上海海事大学

项目金额： 20万元

中文摘要： 目前我国大都市一般突发意外（Ⅳ级）下的交通拥堵问题非常突出，浪费了群众大量的时间，造成了汽车怠速尾气污染，并容易引发交通安全事故。对突发意外路段采取改道隔离是交通管理部门应急交通管理的重要手段。为了对改道隔离设施的使用提供智力支持，本项目将突发事件下的改道隔离设施布设与司机交通选择行为放在统一的框架下研究，以不确定性决策理论和统计决策领域的最新研究成果为工具，研究改道隔离情境下司机交通选择行为的不确定性决策机理。项目分为司机“选择行为的信息调查”、“交通选择行为分析”、“交通选择行为识别、决策与聚类”、“交通选择行为实证与预测”四个部分。项目最大的特色是将多属性决策理论与模式识别、概率选择模型等结合起来。本项目旨在提出一套新的大都市主干道改道隔离区刚性出行司机交通选择行为决策方法和改道隔离路段交通流的时空演化预测方法，为治理城市交通拥堵问题做出贡献。

中文关键词： 城市交通；交通安全设施；出行选择行为；交通堵塞；多属性决策

英文摘要： Currently in China, the traffic congestion issue due to the emergency incident (IV class) is quite prominent. Because of the traffic congestion, a great amount of people’s travel time is wasted, car exhaust pollution and traffic collision become more severe. Road diversion isolation for sudden incident segment is an important method for transportation management department. To provide the intelligent support to diversion of isolation facilities, this project puts traffic isolation facilities layout design and driver choice behavior in emergencies into a unified framework for research. With latest research in decision making under uncertainty statistical decision theory as a tool, the project studies the drivers’ choice action of traffic diversions isolation under uncertainty in the decision-making mechanism. Project is divided into drivers' “choice behavior survey”, “traffic choice behavior analysis”, “traffic choice behavior recognition, decision-making and clustering”, and “empirical and predicted traffic choice behavior”. The most prominent feature of the project is to combine multi-attribute decision theory, pattern recognition, and probabilistic choice model. This project aims to propose a new set of drivers’ selection behavioral decision methods, and the prediction method for the evolution of the time-space traffic flow at isolate road diversions sections, and to make contribution to the solution of urban traffic congestions.

英文关键词： Urban traffic;Traffic safety facilities;Travel choice behavior;Traffic jams;Multiple attribute decision making