全球变化对H5N1型流感病毒时空进化的影响机制研究

项目名称： 全球变化对H5N1型流感病毒时空进化的影响机制研究

项目编号： No.41271099

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 徐冰

作者单位： 清华大学

项目金额： 80万元

中文摘要： H5NI型流感爆发的突发性、传播的全球性，宿主的多样性以及病毒的变异性等特征，使得流感病毒时空进化过程复杂，对其机制研究迫在眉睫。以往对H5NI型流感病毒的微观研究仅从一方面揭示病毒进化的历程以及对流感病毒的预测，但从宏观角度研究全球变化对流感病毒时空进化及传播的影响机制还鲜见报道。本研究基于遥感与GENBANK等流感病毒数据，首先，描述全球H5NI型流感的时空进化特征，比较同期南北半球、各国、各地区流感爆发的特点，以及同一地区在不同年代、季节的流感爆发特征。其次，确定全球气候变化、植被生态系统变化与H5NI型流感病毒爆发时空分布的关系，以及全球交通与社会网络对流感病毒传播的影响，对全球变化的自然和人文因子在流感传播中的影响做出科学评价。最后，建立基于全球变化对H5NI型流感病毒传播的影响机制模型。该模型的建立将会对回顾过去和预测未来全球H5NI型流感疫情，以及对疫苗的评估与预测。

中文关键词： 全球变化；禽流感病毒；传播机制；传播模型；

英文摘要： H5N1 influenza has become a urgent research focus, its evolutional process in time and space are complex due to its features of sudden outbreak, global spread, diverse hosts and the variation of viruses. Previous study on H5N1 influenza always concerned on the microscopic evolutional process of the viruses and further made a certain forecast of the disease, but the study on the effect of global change on the temporal and spatial evolution and spread from the macro aspect is seldom. Based on the data of remote sensing and viruses, for example virus data from GENBANK, this research will firstly characterize the features of the global temporal and spatial evolution of H5N1, and compare the outbreak characteristics of H5N1 1) among north and south hemisphere, different countries and different regions during the same period, 2) among different years and seasons in the same region. Then this research will ascertain 1) the relation between the change of global climate and the ecosystem of vegetation and the spatial-temporal outbreaks of H5N1 and 2) the effects of global traffics and social networks on the spread of influenza virus. Finally, this research will evaluate the influence of the global change of natural and human factors on the spread of avian influenza and model it, this model will be significant in 1) revie

英文关键词： Global change；Avian influenza viruses；Transmission mechanism；Transmission model；