大型风电机组实时可靠性评估与预防维护策略研究

项目名称： 大型风电机组实时可靠性评估与预防维护策略研究

项目编号： No.61463010

项目类型： 地区科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 自动化技术、计算机技术

项目作者： 王衍学

作者单位： 桂林电子科技大学

项目金额： 46万元

中文摘要： 随着风能利用的快速发展，对大型风电机组系统安全、可靠、稳定运行的要求也越来越高。大型风电机组由于系统复杂、运行环境多变，传统单一方法已很难满足系统运行可靠性评估和动态预防维护的要求。本项目集成多学科理论与方法，开展大型风电机组系统实时可靠性评估与预防维护策略研究。针对风电机组系统特点，拟采用信息融合方法，着重研究大型风电机组多部件与多失效模式贝叶斯融合的多源可靠性信息评估方法；基于D-S证据理论的大型风电机组动态环境下不确定状态的实时可靠性评估；基于模糊多目标决策支持系统的大型风电机组分层预防维护策略；在此基础上，提出贝叶斯融合理论、D-S证据理论和模糊多目标决策的多智能体混合体系，实现基于协同多智能体系统的大型风电机组实时可靠性评估与动态预防维护集成系统。本项目的研究有望降低风电机组的风险和维修成本，为最大限度保证系统的正常运行提供一定的理论与技术支撑。

中文关键词： 多源信息融合；可靠性评估；预防维护；风电机组；故障诊断与预测

英文摘要： With the development of the wind power, the safety, reliability and stability of system operation is now becoming more and more important. Due to the complexity of the wind turbine system and their volatile operating environments, traditional methods have difficult to make reliability assessment and dynamic predictive maintenance policies. This research focuses on the reliability assessment and predictive maintenance of the wind turbine with the integration of multi-disciplinary theories and techniques. Some information fusion methods are adopted according to features of the wind turbine system. The research emphases are as follows: the reliability assessments of multi-source information based on the Bayes fusion for multi-system and multi-fault of wind turbine; a real-time reliability evaluation using D-S evidence theory for uncertainty of dynamic conditions; a hierarchy optimal predictive maintenance policy based on multi-attribute decision technique and fuzzy theory. Based on the above research, a hybrid system is proposed based on Bayes fusion, D-S evidence theory, multi-attribute decision and multi-agent system. An integration of real-time reliability assessment and dynamic predictive maintenance for wind turbines is developed using the hrbrid system. Thus research is expected to provide a theoretical and technical support for maintaining the operational reliability of the wind turbine system security and preventing failures.

英文关键词： Multi-source information fusion;Reliability assessment;Predictive Maintenance;Wind turbine;Fault Diagnosis and Prognostics